India braces for unusually hot March that can put key crops at risk, sources say
India is facing an unusually hot March that threatens major winter crops, according to weather bureau sources and agricultural analysts. Forecasts suggest that temperatures in key farming regions could be significantly above normal, potentially making this one of the warmest Marches on record. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is expected to formalize its outlook later in the week, with preliminary indications showing maximum and minimum temperatures up to 7 °C above seasonal averages in states such as Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and parts of Madhya Pradesh — regions that together produce more than 80 % of the country’s wheat and rapeseed.
Higher heat during critical crop stages, especially the grain-filling and maturity phases for wheat, rapeseed and chickpeas, can stress plants, reduce yields and lower harvest quality. India this year planted record areas of these crops and was anticipating bumper production, which could bolster exports and help reduce the nation’s heavy dependence on edible oil imports.
Farmers and commodity specialists warn that persistent above-normal temperatures through early March could cut expected output, trim the potential for surplus exports, and even trigger market price volatility. A similar spell of warm weather in 2022 contributed to a government ban on wheat exports after a poor crop, highlighting the stakes this season.
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The heat is also expected to drive up electricity demand as cooling needs rise across northern India, putting additional pressure on power infrastructure. Daytime highs by late March could exceed 40 °C (104 °F) in many areas if the trend continues.
With these forecasts, governments and farmers alike are preparing for potential stress on crops and rural livelihoods, underscoring broader concerns about climate variability and food security in the world’s second-largest wheat producer.
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